LONDON — People in England and Wales are badly misjudging who commits serious crime, according to a new King’s College London study that comes as radical right parties try to link offending with ethnicity and nationality. A YouGov survey of 1,800 adults found respondents thought 55% of convicted killers were from a minority ethnic background, when the real figure is 35%.
The public also underestimated the share of homicides committed by white people, putting it at 45% rather than the real 64%. The researchers said the findings suggested that feelings about crime, and who is blamed for it, are being shaped more by emotion and political messaging than by the facts.
Survey finds major gaps between public views and homicide figures
The King’s College London academics said the results showed a clear divide between perception and reality. Reform voters were furthest from the truth on homicide, believing 70% of killers were from ethnic minorities, which was 10 percentage points higher than supporters of any other party in the survey.
Prof Bobby Duffy said misperceptions can be driven both by personal concern and by what people are exposed to. He said those who worry more about immigration and diversity are more likely to notice examples that appear to support that view, including crimes involving those groups.
He added that media coverage, social media and political communications can reinforce those impressions by repeatedly highlighting the same kinds of cases.
Foreign national offender estimates were also far above the evidence
The survey found similar overestimates when people were asked about foreign national offenders. Respondents thought foreign nationals made up 25% of the prison population, while the real figure is 12%. They also believed 30% of sexual offences were committed by foreigners, compared with an actual figure of 15%.
Again, Reform voters were the most inaccurate. They thought 50% of sexual offences were committed by foreign nationals, which was 20 percentage points higher than the estimate given by Conservative supporters in the same survey.
The researchers said those figures help explain why crime can be a useful issue for the far right, because public assumptions are already much higher than the evidence shows.
Claims of two-tier justice appear to be gaining ground
The study also found support for the idea of “two-tier justice”, the claim that ethnic minorities are treated more favourably by the courts, despite evidence pointing the other way. Overall, 52% thought ethnic or religious minorities were sentenced differently for crimes.
Of those, 29% believed minority defendants were given more lenient sentences, while 23% thought they were punished more harshly. Duffy said people who accept two-tier justice claims are more likely to doubt the system and demand radical change.
He warned that this can damage trust in the justice system without any basis in reality, and could lead to actions that are neither needed nor effective.
Age shaped answers more than ethnicity in the poll
The survey suggested that people’s age had more influence on their answers than their own ethnicity. Duffy said gen Z respondents estimated the white share of homicide convictions at 58%, while baby boomers put it at 35%.
By contrast, white and non-white respondents gave almost identical answers, which the researchers said pointed to a broader generational pattern rather than a divide between ethnic groups. The poll also found that people exaggerated the level of victimisation in society.
The public’s median guess was that 27% of people had personally experienced crime between 2024 and 2025. The real figure was 9.7%, suggesting that many respondents are reacting to a sense of threat rather than carefully weighing the evidence.
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