LONDON — About 700 eligible prisoners are due to leave jails in England and Wales on the morning of 1 October under the government’s revised early release plan, with around 2,550 expected to have been freed by the end of the year.
The timetable was published after being signed into law and keeps the broad structure of the original scheme, but the start date has been pushed back by a month and a number of offences have been excluded. The policy is intended to ease pressure on prisons running close to capacity.
Ministers say the changes follow concerns from victims and the need to manage overcrowding across the prison estate.
First releases begin in October after a one-month delay
Under the updated plan, prisoners serving sentences of up to 19 months will become eligible from 1 October, rather than 2 September as originally set out. Those prisoners will be able to leave after serving one third of their sentence, subject to the scheme’s conditions.
The government says roughly 700 people are expected to walk out of prison gates on that first day. A second group of about 650 prisoners, serving sentences of between 19 months and two years and five months, is due to be released from 13 October.
That second stage now leaves prisons and probation services with less than a fortnight to prepare, compared with almost six weeks under the earlier timetable. The shorter window comes as officials try to manage the strain on staffing and available space.
Prisons in England and Wales remain close to full capacity
Latest Ministry of Justice figures show prisons in England and Wales are operating at 97% capacity, with about 1,500 free spaces across the male prison estate.
Officials have warned that the system remains under heavy pressure, and the early release scheme is part of a wider effort to create room quickly. The revised timetable is also expected to affect probation services, which will have to supervise people leaving custody in stages over several months.
The Ministry of Justice has said the estimate of how many prisoners can be released early is based on its own calculations. It also said 1,400 more offenders had been due to be freed under the original plan before revisions were made after certain offences were removed from the scheme.
Seventy one offences are excluded from the scheme
The ministerial order lists 71 crimes that will not qualify for earlier release, including manslaughter, rape, and sexual and grooming offences. The prime minister said he understood the “anguish” of victims and had listened to what they were saying.
Andy Burnham said he had asked for changes to the early release scheme and that rape, grooming and child sex offences had been excluded. Prisoners serving on special extended sentences and those on life terms are also barred from the programme.
The longer-sentence group is not due to enter the scheme until next year. Ministers say those offenders would previously have expected to serve two thirds of their sentence, but under the revised rules they will instead be released at the halfway point.
£110m plan to convert spare prison space into cells
On Tuesday, the government said it would create more cells inside existing prisons in England and Wales as part of its response to overcrowding. The Ministry of Justice said £110m from existing budgets will be used to turn unused office space, laundry rooms and storage areas into cells.
Justice Secretary Alex Norris told the BBC that release from custody did not mean “freedom”, and said victims would have a say in restrictions placed on offenders. He also said he expected the number of additional prison spaces created through the plan to end up somewhere between 200 and 900.
The department’s wider aim is to increase the prison estate’s flexibility while the phased release programme continues into 2027, with further groups due to leave custody from November onwards.
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